The Totals System
Few strategies are easier to understand and use than the Top Totals System made by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and also the author of Getting a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody discovered that sportsbooks frequently underestimate game totals for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a very simple strategy, but it paid off as he was correct 63.5% of time for all games meeting that criteria from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those kinds of games were rarities a decade ago, but they’re becoming more common now as teams push the pace and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points each match. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and rose all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have gotten savvy for this tendency, but there is still worth to be seen by taking the over in matches with especially high total-point projections.
The Blowout System
If an NBA team wins by 15 or more points, you might think that they have got momentum and will win their next game by double-digits too. However, the opposite is generally true. The number crunchers in Sports Insights have found that home favorites of ten points or even more who are fresh off of 15-point victories beat the spread just 42.5% of their time.
Teams that hammer their opponents one game are unlikely to do this the following night.
To put it differently, teams that hammer their opponents one match are unlikely to do this the following night. That statistical fall off could be the end result of participant exhaustion or overconfidence or a consequence of the oddsmakers overreacting to the previous game. Whatever the reason, there’s cash to be made by betting against a team that simply wiped the courtroom with its preceding opponent.
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